Biden Didn’t Cause the Border Crisis
A Four-Part Analysis
The U.S.-Mexico border crisis has taken center stage in political debate, with many pointing to President Joe Biden as the cause of record illegal immigration. However, a detailed analysis by a Cato Institute immigration expert challenges this notion, presenting a more nuanced picture rooted in facts overlooked in much of the commentary.
Drawing upon government data and extensive research, this four-part series published by Cato at Liberty shows that the current situation results from deep structural forces, evolving global dynamics, and policies from several administrations—not just those of recent years.
Biden Didn’t Cause the Border Crisis: A Summary
The numbers tell a clear story: the surge at the border began before President Biden assumed office and had already started to fade before his term was over.
Rather than weaken border enforcement, the administration expanded it:
- Interior immigration detention tripled, while border detention increased twelvefold.
- Air removal flights rose by over 50 percent.
- Agreements were reached with more foreign governments to accept expulsions than in the previous administration.
- Total removals and expulsions surpassed 3.3 million, nearly three times as many as the Trump era.
Despite these statistics, migration soared. This wasn’t the result of lenient policies, but reflected larger factors—chief among them high U.S. labor demand, the explosive growth of migration-related information online, and enforcement rules such as Title 42 that had unintended effects.
The response was unprecedented, yet the driving causes of migration stretched far beyond executive control.
Myth-Busting: Did Biden Cut Enforcement?
The series confronts the common claim that weakening enforcement led to a border surge. Examining the data, it finds:
- The use of Title 42 for border expulsions doubled early in the term.
- The “Remain in Mexico” program—a frequent point in political debates—was comparatively small next to Title 42’s scope.
- Interior deportation restrictions were largely about reallocating resources rather than easing enforcement and were never fully enacted.
Real obstacles stemmed from logistics: limited shelter space in Mexico, caps on U.S. air deportation, and other countries’ resistance to return flights. Despite these, detentions and removals rose to levels previously unseen. The challenge stemmed from system overload, not neglect.
Could Trump Have Prevented the Crisis?
The third section addresses whether reverting to Trump-era policies would have changed the outcome. Evidence suggests otherwise.
Key groups—like families and children from distant countries—have never been removed in large numbers, even during periods of strict enforcement. Illegal crossings were rising well before the 2020 election, reaching a 21-year high as the new administration began. There is no evidence of a sudden “Biden effect.”
In June 2024, when Biden issued an executive order tightening asylum, border arrests had already dropped by more than half, indicating that policy shifts were not the primary cause of the decline. Some removal rates during the early years even surpassed those under Trump.
What Actually Caused the Crisis?
The final part highlights four root causes for the surge:
-
Unprecedented U.S. Labor Demand
From 2021 to 2024, the nation reported more than 12 million job openings. Lagging economies elsewhere made the opportunity gap irresistible for many. -
Explosion of Migration Information Online
Greater internet access meant that prospective migrants could find real-time guides, smuggler contacts, and other resources. By 2022, a large majority relied on social media for journey planning. -
Enforcement Policies Like Title 42
Title 42, instead of deterring crossings, resulted in repeat attempts—recidivism soared to 50 percent for some groups, compared with just 7 percent prior to its use. Closing the asylum pathway drove more desperate border crossings. -
Miscommunications and Legal Barriers
Many migrants believed legal entry might be possible, but only a select few were permitted. With no legal options, families and long-term applicants crossed illegally. Additional policy changes, like restrictions on visa-free travel, funneled migration into riskier land routes.
Efforts to block specific routes sometimes made things worse. For instance, banning flights only pushed migrants onto more dangerous paths. Some reforms—like expanded parole and sponsorship programs, plus tech tools such as the CBP One app—helped reduce illegal entries, yet policy limits kept the problem from fully receding.
Conclusion: A System in Need of Reform
The data-driven analysis challenges simplistic explanations. Forces driving migration—strong labor demand, technological change, and an outmoded immigration system—are bigger than any single administration. Enforcement and international cooperation reached new heights, but they could only contain, not resolve, the challenge.
The real path forward is modernizing the immigration system, creating legal opportunities that match economic and humanitarian realities. Until the underlying causes are addressed, no presidential strategy alone can solve it.
Assigning blame doesn’t fix the border. Only honest assessment and thoughtful solutions will move America forward.
Read the original articles in this four-part series at Cato at Liberty:
Biden Didn’t Cause the Border Crisis – Cato Institute (Four-Part Series)
